History says Skelton's Virgilio will win the 2018 Grand National
AS punters saddle up for the return of the Grand National on Saturday, historical research into previous winners finds that the Dan Skelton-trained Virgilio has the best chance of stealing the £561,000 prize.
Betting aggregator GrandNational.org.uk has studied the winning horses since the Grand National started in 1839 and found that, statistically, the winner of the iconic race…
- Is nine-years-old
- Has a handicap of 10st 7lbs
- Has a starting price of 19/1
- Is ridden by a jockey called John or Tommy
- Is trained by a man called Tom
- Has an owner called John
From this year’s expected line-up, bay gelding Virgilo, who is trained at Skelton's Shelfield Green yard near Alcester, perfectly matches the best age (nine) and handicap (10st 7lbs) and most closely resembles the typical Grand National winner.
And, with current odds of 66/1, this French horse could allow racing fans to rein in some serious earnings if he crosses the finish line first.
Those concerned about the unfavourable odds should be reassured that a big outsider has been victorious at Aintree as recently as 2009. Mon Mome – also nine-years-old at the time – won with jockey Liam Treadwell less than a decade ago.
Of the early favourites for this year’s race, just two of the five match the average winning age (Total Recall and Blaklion) and fourth favourite Tiger Roll is the closest to the ideal handicap with a weight of 10st 12lbs.
